Giants vs Saints – Week 5 2025
NYG
NO
NYG
AWAY
14@26
NO BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 14, New Orleans Saints 26.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 5 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 61%Our line: NO -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.029
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (10)
42.1% (25)Offense success %42.0% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 12. Off by 8.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@NYGW6 2026 | NO 34, NYG 27 | NYG | L |
| NO@NYGW14 2024 | NO 14, NYG 11 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW15 2023 | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW4 2021 | NYG 27, NO 21 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.8. The market has NO at -1.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NYG 14, NO 26. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -1.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 3.4 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, NYG 27 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NYG -0.075 against NO -0.029.
