2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYG @ NO – Week 5 2025
NYG
NO
NYG
AWAY
14@26
NO +12
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 61%Projected margin: 1.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 12. Off by 10.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYG
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8SEASON PPR
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@NYGW14 2024 | NO 14, NYG 11 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW15 2023 | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW4 2021 | NYG 27, NO 21 | NO | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES