2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CIN – Week 5 2025
DET
CIN
DET
AWAY
37@24
DET +13
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 71%Projected margin: -5.1
DET
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 13. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DETW6 2021 | CIN 34, DET 11 | CIN | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES