Lions vs Bengals – Week 5 2025
DET
CIN
DET
AWAY
37@24
DET BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 37, Cincinnati Bengals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Lions, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
45.2% (12)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 13. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DETW6 2021 | CIN 34, DET 11 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CIN
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 7.6. The market has DET at -10.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 37, CIN 24. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -10.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 5, the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.3, 5.2 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, DET 11 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against CIN -0.138.
