DET @ CIN – Week 5 2025
DET
CIN
DET
AWAY
37@24
DET BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.6
OUR LINE
-249
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.081Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.130
45.2%Offense success %45.5%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 13. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -575 | +425 |
| Our fair price | -249 | +249 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
82%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DETW6 2021 | CIN 34, DET 11 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 7.6. The market has DET at -10.5.
The model projects 44.3 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, DET 11 in Week 6 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
