CIN @ DET – Week 6 2021
CIN
DET
CIN
AWAY
34@11
CIN BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-157
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.057Offense EPA / play-0.063
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.098
44.2%Offense success %42.0%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 23. Off by 19.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -192 | +171 |
| Our fair price | -157 | +157 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4611 yd · 34 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1205 yd · 13 TD
Samaje Perine246 yd · 1 TD
Joe Burrow118 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase81 rec · 1455 yd · 13 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1091 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CINW5 2025 | DET 37, CIN 24 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.8. The market has CIN at -3.5.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 37, CIN 24 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against DET -0.161.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
