Bengals vs Lions – Week 6 2021
CIN
DET
CIN
AWAY
34@11
CIN BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Detroit Lions 11.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
44.2% (17)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 23. Off by 19.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CINW5 2025 | DET 37, CIN 24 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DET
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.8. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 34, DET 11. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 37, CIN 24 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against DET -0.161.
