LV @ DEN – Week 6 2021
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
34@24
LV BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 50%Our line: DEN -0.1
DEN
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.1
OUR LINE
-101
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.019Offense EPA / play+0.015
+0.045Defense EPA / play+0.011
44.9%Offense success %44.7%
43.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 0.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +182 | -205 |
| Our fair price | +101 | -101 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1 SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs872 yd · 9 TD
Kenyan Drake254 yd · 2 TD
Peyton Barber212 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
Darren Waller55 rec · 665 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.1. The market has DEN at -5.0.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: LV -0.064 against DEN +0.004.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
