LAC @ BAL – Week 6 2021
LAC
BAL
LAC
AWAY
6@34
BAL BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 59%Our line: BAL -3.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.095Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.033Defense EPA / play+0.070
47.6%Offense success %46.4%
46.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 28. Off by 25.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +149 | -166 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8 SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert5014 yd · 38 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler911 yd · 12 TD
Justin Jackson364 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert302 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Williams76 rec · 1146 yd · 9 TD
Keenan Allen106 rec · 1138 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2024 | BAL 30, LAC 23 | BAL | W |
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.0. The market has BAL at -3.0.
The model projects 49.8 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 30, LAC 23 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against BAL -0.065.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
