Chargers vs Ravens – Week 6 2021
LAC
BAL
LAC
AWAY
6@34
BAL BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 6, Baltimore Ravens 34.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 59%Our line: BAL -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
47.6% (6)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 28. Off by 25.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2024 | BAL 30, LAC 23 | BAL | W |
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.0. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, LAC 6, BAL 34. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.8, 0.7 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 30, LAC 23 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against BAL -0.065.
