2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ IND – Week 6 2021
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
3@31
IND +28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 65%Projected margin: 6.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 28. Off by 21.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -442 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES