Texans vs Colts – Week 6 2021
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
3@31
IND BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 3, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 5 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 65%Our line: IND -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
37.4% (32)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 28. Off by 22.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 5.3. The market has IND at -10.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, HOU 3, IND 31. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -10.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 6, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: HOU -0.212 against IND +0.045.
