2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ PHI – Week 6 2021
TB
PHI
TB
AWAY
28@22
TB +6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: -8.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-8.0
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 8.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -274 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2025 | PHI 31, TB 25 | TB | L |
| PHI@TBW4 2024 | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI | L |
| PHI@TBW3 2023 | PHI 25, TB 11 | TB | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES