2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ TB – Week 4 2024
PHI
TB
PHI
AWAY
16@33
TB +17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 60%Projected margin: -0.5
PHI
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but TB won. Projected margin was 0.5 -- the model overestimated by 17.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
216.9SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2025 | PHI 31, TB 25 | TB | L |
| PHI@TBW3 2023 | PHI 25, TB 11 | TB | L |
| TB@PHIW6 2021 | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES