Browns vs Raiders – Week 4 2024
CLE
LV
CLE
AWAY
16@20
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 16, Las Vegas Raiders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 6 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 59%Our line: LV -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.201Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (31)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.021 (19)
37.0% (32)Offense success %40.5% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 3.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 3.0. The market has LV at +2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, CLE 16, LV 20. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +2.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 8.5 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 24, LV 10 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Las Vegas Raiders: CLE -0.201 against LV -0.164.
