2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ LV – Week 4 2024
CLE
LV
CLE
AWAY
16@20
LV +4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 59%Projected margin: 0.7
LV
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 4. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0SEASON PPR
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
| LV@CLEW8 2020 | LV 16, CLE 6 | CLE | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES