2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ MIA – Week 4 2024
TEN
MIA
TEN
AWAY
31@12
TEN +19
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 70%Projected margin: 6.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.3 -- the model overestimated by 25.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW14 2023 | TEN 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| MIA@TENW17 2021 | MIA 3, TEN 34 | MIA | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES