TEN @ MIA – Week 4 2024
TEN
MIA
TEN
AWAY
31@12
TEN BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 70%Our line: MIA -7.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.2
OUR LINE
-236
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.146Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.030Defense EPA / play-0.022
39.9%Offense success %44.3%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 7.2, the model overestimated by 26.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | +236 | -236 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7 SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2 SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
W.Levis2091 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1079 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears312 yd · 4 TD
W.Levis183 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Ridley64 rec · 1017 yd · 4 TD
N.Westbrook-Ikhine32 rec · 497 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW14 2023 | TEN 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| MIA@TENW17 2021 | MIA 3, TEN 34 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.2. The market has MIA at -2.5.
The model projects 42.8 combined points. The market total is 37.0.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, MON 7:30 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 28, MIA 27 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: TEN -0.146 against MIA -0.017.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
