2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ MIA – Week 14 2023
TEN
MIA
TEN
AWAY
28@27
TEN +1
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER S
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 81%Projected margin: 10.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
10.3
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA S-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 10.3 -- the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -950 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW4 2024 | TEN 31, MIA 12 | MIA | L |
| MIA@TENW17 2021 | MIA 3, TEN 34 | MIA | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES