TEN @ MIA – Week 14 2023
TEN
MIA
TEN
AWAY
28@27
TEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 81%Our line: MIA -11.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-11.7
OUR LINE
-417
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.047Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.007Defense EPA / play-0.039
39.7%Offense success %47.2%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA S-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 11.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +625 | -950 |
| Our fair price | +417 | -417 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
81%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6 SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1167 yd · 12 TD
Tyjae Spears453 yd · 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill74 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins75 rec · 1057 yd · 7 TD
Chig Okonkwo54 rec · 528 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW4 2024 | TEN 31, MIA 12 | MIA | L |
| MIA@TENW17 2021 | MIA 3, TEN 34 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project MIA by 11.7. The market has MIA at -14.0.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 31, MIA 12 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: TEN -0.055 against MIA +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
