Bills vs Chiefs – Week 14 2023
BUF
KC
BUF
AWAY
20@17
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 60%Our line: KC -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.182Net EPA / play+0.107
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
49.0% (2)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but BUF won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.3. The market has KC at -2.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 20, KC 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -2.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 14, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 4.8 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against KC +0.107.
