Colts vs Bengals – Week 14 2023
IND
CIN
IND
AWAY
14@34
CIN BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 14, Cincinnati Bengals 34.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.044
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
40.8% (24)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 20. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@INDW6 2020 | CIN 27, IND 31 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.9. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, IND 14, CIN 34. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, CIN 27, IND 31 in Week 6 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against CIN -0.044.
