2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ NO – Week 14 2023
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
6@28
NO +22
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 73%Projected margin: 6.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 22. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4SEASON PPR
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| NO@CARW2 2023 | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES