Panthers vs Saints – Week 14 2023
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
6@28
NO BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 6, New Orleans Saints 28.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 73%Our line: NO -8.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -8.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.200Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.177 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
+0.023 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
37.6% (31)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 8.3. Actual: 22. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| NO@CARW2 2023 | NO 20, CAR 17 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NO by 8.3. The market has NO at -5.5.
New Orleans Saints won, CAR 6, NO 28. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -5.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 14, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 7.3 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.200 against NO +0.086.
