Lions vs Bears – Week 14 2023
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
13@28
CHI BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 13, Chicago Bears 28.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: DET 68%Our line: DET -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -6.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.093Net EPA / play-0.007
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
46.1% (6)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CHI won. Projected margin was 6.2, the model overestimated by 21.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 6.2. The market has DET at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, DET 13, CHI 28. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against CHI -0.007.
