2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CHI – Week 14 2023
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
13@28
CHI +15
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 68%Projected margin: -4.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CHI won. Projected margin was 4.7 -- the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
242.1SEASON PPR
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES