2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ NYJ – Week 14 2023
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
6@30
NYJ +24
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 71%Projected margin: -5.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.0 -- the model overestimated by 29.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3SEASON PPR
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES