HOU @ NYJ – Week 14 2023
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
6@30
NYJ BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 71%Our line: HOU -7.4
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-242
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.028Offense EPA / play-0.252
-0.043Defense EPA / play-0.119
40.9%Offense success %35.0%
40.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 31.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +145 |
| Our fair price | -242 | +242 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0 SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.J. Stroud4108 yd · 23 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary898 yd · 4 TD
Dameon Pierce416 yd · 2 TD
C.J. Stroud167 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Nico Collins80 rec · 1297 yd · 8 TD
Tank Dell47 rec · 709 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 7.4. The market has HOU at -3.5.
The model projects 43.2 combined points. The market total is 33.5.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 13, NYJ 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against NYJ -0.133.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
