Texans vs Jets – Week 14 2023
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
6@30
NYJ BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 6, New York Jets 30.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: HOU 71%Our line: HOU -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
40.9% (23)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 31.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYJ
Our model takes Houston Texans at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 7.4. The market has HOU at -3.5.
New York Jets won, HOU 6, NYJ 30. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 33.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.2, 9.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 13, NYJ 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against NYJ -0.133.
