2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ CLE – Week 14 2023
JAX
CLE
JAX
AWAY
27@31
CLE +4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 59%Projected margin: -0.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CLE won. Projected margin was 0.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +120 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES