Jaguars vs Browns – Week 14 2023
JAX
CLE
JAX
AWAY
27@31
CLE BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Cleveland Browns 31.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 59%Our line: JAX -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
42.1% (15)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CLE won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAXW1 2026 | CLE 10, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
| CLE@JAXW2 2024 | CLE 18, JAX 13 | CLE | W |
| CLE@JAXW12 2020 | CLE 27, JAX 25 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CLE
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.1. The market has JAX at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, JAX 27, CLE 31. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 8.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CLE 10, JAX 34 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: JAX -0.034 against CLE +0.045.
