Vikings vs Raiders – Week 14 2023
MIN
LV
MIN
AWAY
3@0
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 3, Las Vegas Raiders 0.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: MIN 61%Our line: MIN -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.9
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
42.4% (13)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 19 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LV
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.9. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 3, LV 0. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against LV -0.037.
