Packers vs Giants – Week 14 2023
GB
NYG
GB
AWAY
22@24
NYG BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 22, New York Giants 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 1 Giants.
Model confidence: GB 69%Our line: GB -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.155
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
44.6% (9)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NYG won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 8.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@NYGW11 2025 | GB 27, NYG 20 | GB | W |
| NYG@GBW5 2022 | NYG 27, GB 22 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs NYG
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.8. The market has GB at -6.0.
New York Giants won, GB 22, NYG 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 14, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 7.8 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 27, NYG 20 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against NYG -0.155.
