Giants vs Packers – Week 5 2022
NYG
GB
NYG
AWAY
27@22
NYG BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 27, Green Bay Packers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 7 Giants.
Model confidence: GB 77%Our line: GB -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -9.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.030 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
+0.046 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
44.9% (14)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NYG won. Projected margin was 9.8, the model overestimated by 14.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@NYGW11 2025 | GB 27, NYG 20 | GB | W |
| GB@NYGW14 2023 | GB 22, NYG 24 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 9.8. The market has GB at -8.5.
New York Giants won, NYG 27, GB 22. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -8.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Giants were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 27, NYG 20 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.016 against GB -0.034.
