2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ MIN – Week 5 2022
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
22@29
MIN +7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 69%Projected margin: 5.3
MIN
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
5.3
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.3. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -385 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3SEASON PPR
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES