Bears vs Vikings – Week 5 2022
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
22@29
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 22, Minnesota Vikings 29.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 69%Our line: MIN -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.011 (19)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (21)
40.5% (27)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 6.7. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.7. The market has MIN at -10.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, CHI 22, MIN 29. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -10.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 5, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Minnesota Vikings: CHI -0.164 against MIN -0.023.
