2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ CHI – Week 12 2024
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
30@27
MIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: MIN 66%Projected margin: -4.0
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@CHIW6 2023 | MIN 19, CHI 13 | MIN | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES