Vikings vs Bears – Week 12 2024
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
30@27
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 30, Chicago Bears 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: MIN 66%Our line: MIN -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -5.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
45.6% (12)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.7. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 30, CHI 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 6.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against CHI -0.088.
