Lions vs Colts – Week 12 2024
DET
IND
DET
AWAY
24@6
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 24, Indianapolis Colts 6.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: DET 70%Our line: DET -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.232Net EPA / play-0.061
+0.170 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
-0.062 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
50.1% (1)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 18. Off by 10.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@DETW8 2020 | IND 41, DET 21 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs IND
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 7.1. The market has DET at -7.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 24, IND 6. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 12, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 41, DET 21 in Week 8 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against IND -0.061.
