Ravens vs Chargers – Week 12 2024
BAL
LAC
BAL
AWAY
30@23
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 30, Los Angeles Chargers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.100
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (12)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (7)
50.0% (2)Offense success %42.0% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.1. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
| LAC@BALW6 2021 | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs LAC
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.1. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 30, LAC 23. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 4.4 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 20, LAC 10 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against LAC +0.100.
