BAL @ LAC – Week 12 2024
BAL
LAC
BAL
AWAY
30@23
BAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-163
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.269Net EPA / play+0.100
+0.218Offense EPA / play+0.039
-0.051Defense EPA / play-0.061
50.0%Offense success %42.0%
39.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.1. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -166 | +140 |
| Our fair price | -163 | +163 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4 SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4 SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson4172 yd · 41 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1921 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson915 yd · 4 TD
J.Hill228 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers74 rec · 1059 yd · 4 TD
R.Bateman45 rec · 756 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
| LAC@BALW6 2021 | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.1. The market has BAL at -3.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 51.0.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 20, LAC 10 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against LAC +0.100.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
