2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ LAC – Week 12 2024
BAL
LAC
BAL
AWAY
30@23
BAL +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 62%Projected margin: -1.2
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 7. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -166 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
| LAC@BALW6 2021 | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES