2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CLE – Week 12 2024
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
19@24
CLE +5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 71%Projected margin: -6.4
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 6.4 -- the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -205 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3SEASON PPR
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW2 2023 | CLE 22, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES