PIT @ CLE – Week 12 2024
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
19@24
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 71%Our line: PIT -7.4
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-242
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.034Offense EPA / play-0.183
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.017
40.4%Offense success %37.0%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +170 |
| Our fair price | -242 | +242 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6 SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8 SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
R.Wilson2482 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
N.Harris1043 yd · 6 TD
J.Warren511 yd · 1 TD
J.Fields289 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens59 rec · 900 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth65 rec · 653 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW2 2023 | CLE 22, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.4. The market has PIT at -3.5.
The model projects 44.5 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 6, CLE 13 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.016 against CLE -0.201.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
