Steelers vs Browns – Week 12 2024
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
19@24
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Cleveland Browns 24.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: PIT 71%Our line: PIT -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
40.4% (27)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.4. The market has PIT at -3.5.
Cleveland Browns won, PIT 19, CLE 24. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 8.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.016 against CLE -0.201.
