Browns vs Steelers – Week 14 2024
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
14@27
PIT BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 14, Pittsburgh Steelers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 75%Our line: PIT -9.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -9.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.201Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
37.0% (32)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 9.1. Actual: 13. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PIT by 9.1. The market has PIT at -6.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CLE 14, PIT 27. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 14, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CLE -0.201 against PIT -0.016.
