Packers vs Lions – Week 14 2024
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
31@34
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 31, Detroit Lions 34.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Packers, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.8
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.146Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.079 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
44.9% (14)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.8. The market has DET at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, GB 31, DET 34. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 5.7 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: GB +0.146 against DET +0.232.
