2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ DET – Week 14 2024
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
31@34
DET +3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: DET 64%Projected margin: 3.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 3.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0SEASON PPR
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES