Packers vs Lions – Week 7 2026
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has the Lions at -3.0, and our model is 2.2 points higher on them than the book.
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.2
80% range around our line: GB by 12 to DET by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.2
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SPORTSBOOK | GB | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 | 58.3% |
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 7 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.029
-0.021 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
-0.039 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
40.7% (24)Offense success %49.1% (4)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors DET (B-tier, 65% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
DET is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 93% in the red zone vs 55% for GB. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.5 for GB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
Indoor venue. No weather to forecast.
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love1408 yd · 10 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
M.Lloyd112 yd · 2 TD
K.Johnson106 yd · 0 TD
C.Brooks70 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Watson26 rec · 474 yd · 6 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.2. The market has DET at -3.0.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: GB +0.018 against DET +0.029.
