Colts vs Vikings – Week 7 2026
IND
MIN
IND
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Vikings over the Colts at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick.
The market has the Vikings at -5.5, and our model is 3.5 points higher on them than the book.
Model confidence: MIN 75%Our line: MIN -9.0
80% range around our line: IND by 8 to MIN by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the MIN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -9.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SPORTSBOOK | IND | MIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +205 | -250 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 7 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.111
-0.051 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (28)
+0.099 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.210 (1)
42.2% (19)Offense success %35.9% (32)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on MIN at 75% confidence.
EPA EDGE
MIN generates -0.099 EPA/play on offense. IND's defense allows 0.099. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
MIN is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.0-point margin.
Multiple signals align in MIN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
Indoor venue. No weather to forecast.
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@MINW9 2024 | IND 13, MIN 21 | IND | L |
| IND@MINW15 2022 | IND 36, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| MIN@INDW2 2020 | MIN 11, IND 28 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 9.0. The market has MIN at -5.5.
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -5.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 5.5 points.
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, IND 13, MIN 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: IND -0.150 against MIN +0.111.
