Patriots vs Bears – Week 7 2026
NE
CHI
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Bears at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has the Patriots at +1.5, and our model is 4.5 points higher on them than the book.
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.0
80% range around our line: CHI by 14 to NE by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
| SPORTSBOOK | NE | CHI | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | 41.3% |
| ESPN BET |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 7 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
NE
0 INJ LISTED
0 OUT
CHI
0 INJ LISTED
0 OUT
KICKOFF FORECAST
62°F · 5 MPH · CLEAR
REST
NE 4d · CHI 4d
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.008
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
45.4% (13)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
NE is our B-tier play in NE @ CHI (Week 7, 2026). The model assigns 59% confidence and projects NE by 3.0. The market has NE +1.5, so it expects NE to win by 1.5. The model is 4.5 points higher on NE than the book, the widest kind of gap this model produces.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHERKICKOFF FORECAST · 4 DAYS OUT
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
5 MPH
PRECIP
0%
SKY
CLEAR
Hourly forecast for the kickoff hour at the home stadium, source National Weather Service, refreshed hourly. Not an input to the pick.
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CHIW10 2024 | NE 19, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@NEW7 2022 | CHI 33, NE 14 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CHI
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.0. The market has NE at +1.5.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick.
The market has New England Patriots at +1.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 1.5 points.
Week 7 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 19, CHI 3 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.055 against CHI +0.008.
