NYG @ HOU – Week 7 2026
NYG
HOU
NYG
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: HOU 81%Projected margin: -11.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-11.2
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.012Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.087Defense EPA / play-0.131
42.1%Offense success %41.3%
47.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
S-tier pick on HOU at 81% confidence.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates -0.013 EPA/play on offense. NYG's defense allows 0.087. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
S-TIER
S-tier. Only the most extreme edges earn this grade. Historically NoPunt's highest hit-rate tier.
HIGH CONVICTION
HOU is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.2-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
T.Johnson45 rec · 528 yd · 5 TD
T.Tracy36 rec · 288 yd · 2 TD
VS
2,272PASSyds3,041
1,664RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYGW10 2022 | HOU 16, NYG 24 | NYG | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs HOU
Who is favored in New York Giants at Houston Texans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project HOU by 11.2. The market has HOU at -5.5.
When do the New York Giants and Houston Texans play?
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Giants vs Houston Texans game?
New York Giants, 16-24 in Week 10 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the New York Giants or the Houston Texans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: NYG -0.075 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
