PIT @ NO – Week 7 2026
PIT
NO
PIT
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
NO
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 62%Projected margin: -1.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.029
+0.025Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.059
44.0%Offense success %42.0%
43.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors PIT (B-tier, 62% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
PIT is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
PIT scores 1.8 points per drive vs 1.1 for NO. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for PIT. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,322PASSyds2,384
1,564RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@PITW10 2022 | NO 10, PIT 20 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NO
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints?
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 1.2. The market has PIT at -2.5.
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints play?
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Who won the last Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints game?
Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-20 in Week 10 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New Orleans Saints?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
