AFC North · #17 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Pittsburgh Steelers
FOR 39-20 (66%)VS 20-21 (49%)ATS 36-23 (61%)397–387 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
vs
Atlanta FalconsSUN 1:00 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →vsAtlanta FalconsKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISElite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 66.7% of red zone trips.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL+0.007
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.025
OFF EPA/PLAY
+0.018
DEF EPA/PLAY
+0.029
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.019
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS-0.012
+0.067
+0.229
+0.094
-0.025
+0.168
+0.132
+0.062
+0.152
+0.164
+0.075
+0.178
+0.132
+0.053
+0.005
+0.068
+0.101
+0.080
+0.109
+0.077
-0.037
+0.128
-0.090
-0.012
-0.013
-0.016
+0.007
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.007 | +0.025 | +0.018 | 397 | 387 |
| 2024 | -0.016 | -0.034 | -0.018 | 380 | 347 |
| 2023 | -0.013 | -0.073 | -0.060 | 304 | 324 |
| 2022 | -0.012 | +0.012 | +0.024 | 308 | 346 |
| 2021 | -0.090 | -0.074 | +0.016 | 343 | 398 |
| 2020 | +0.128 | +0.010 | -0.118 | 416 | 312 |
| 2019 | -0.037 | -0.175 | -0.138 | 289 | 303 |
| 2018 | +0.077 | +0.104 | +0.027 | 428 | 360 |
| 2017 | +0.109 | +0.061 | -0.048 | 406 | 308 |
| 2016 | +0.080 | +0.086 | +0.005 | 399 | 327 |
| 2015 | +0.101 | +0.060 | -0.041 | 423 | 319 |
| 2014 | +0.068 | +0.109 | +0.040 | 436 | 368 |
| 2013 | +0.005 | +0.002 | -0.003 | 379 | 370 |
| 2012 | +0.053 | -0.009 | -0.062 | 336 | 314 |
| 2011 | +0.132 | +0.060 | -0.072 | 325 | 227 |
| 2010 | +0.178 | +0.047 | -0.130 | 375 | 232 |
| 2009 | +0.075 | +0.051 | -0.024 | 368 | 324 |
| 2008 | +0.164 | -0.033 | -0.197 | 347 | 223 |
| 2007 | +0.152 | +0.058 | -0.094 | 393 | 269 |
| 2006 | +0.062 | -0.014 | -0.076 | 353 | 315 |
| 2005 | +0.132 | +0.043 | -0.089 | 389 | 258 |
| 2004 | +0.168 | +0.034 | -0.134 | 372 | 251 |
| 2003 | -0.025 | -0.095 | -0.070 | 300 | 327 |
| 2002 | +0.094 | +0.003 | -0.091 | 390 | 345 |
| 2001 | +0.229 | +0.058 | -0.171 | 352 | 212 |
| 2000 | +0.067 | -0.056 | -0.122 | 321 | 255 |
| 1999 | -0.012 | -0.072 | -0.059 | 317 | 320 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
59.5%
EARLY DOWN PASS
54.4%
SHOTGUN RATE
66.7%
NO HUDDLE
11.6%
4TH DOWN GO
19.8%
4TH DOWN CONV
52.2%
3RD DOWN CONV
40.4%
RED ZONE TD
66.7%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
92.3%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.146
PTS/DRIVE
1.8
PLAYS/DRIVE
5.8
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59.5% | 19.8% | 40.4% | 66.7% | 1.8 | -0.043 |
| 2024 | 51.3% | 14.3% | 39.6% | 68.2% | 1.3 | +0.102 |
| 2023 | 53.8% | 13.8% | 37.1% | 63.2% | 1.1 | +0.073 |
| 2022 | 55.4% | 12.0% | 44.9% | 68.2% | 1.1 | -0.053 |
| 2021 | 63.9% | 15.6% | 38.9% | 63.6% | 1.2 | +0.137 |
| 2020 | 65.7% | 15.8% | 42.9% | 76.0% | 1.8 | +0.050 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A.Rodgers | QB | 16 | 3,322 | 61 | — | 25 | 227.1 |
| K.Gainwell | RB | 17 | — | 537 | 486 | 8 | 221.3 |
| J.Warren | RB | 16 | — | 958 | 333 | 8 | 217.1 |
| D.Metcalf | WR | 15 | — | 12 | 850 | 7 | 187.2 |
| C.Austin | WR | 14 | — | — | 372 | 3 | 86.2 |
| R.Wilson | WR | 9 | — | — | 166 | 2 | 38.6 |
| P.Freiermuth | TE | 15 | — | — | 486 | 4 | 113.6 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
33-17
66% WIN RATE
AWAY
27-23
54% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS39-20
PICKS FOR
66%
FOR ACCURACY
20-21
PICKS AGAINST
49%
AGAINST ACCURACY
100
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK PIT · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
20-12
62.5%
AWAY
16-11
59.3%
FAVORITE
21-19
52.5%
UNDERDOG
15-4
78.9%
S TIER
2-3
A+ TIER
3-1
A TIER
2-4
B TIER
11-8
C TIER
18-7
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR PIT · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs BAL4-0
vs NYG2-0
vs DEN2-0
vs ATL2-0
vs LV3-1
vs NYJ2-1
vs CLE5-4
vs CIN5-4
vs WAS1-1
vs DAL1-1
vs LAC1-1
vs JAX1-1
vs HOU1-1
vs NE1-2
vs IND0-2
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | PIT @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | PIT @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | CAR @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | BAL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | PIT @ JAXMON 8:15 PM | JAX | FCST | 68% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | HOU @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | HOU | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | DEN @ PITFRI 3:00 PM | DEN | B | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | PIT @ PHISUN 4:25 PM | PHI | FCST | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | PIT @ CINSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | CLE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 76% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | PIT @ NOSUN 9:30 AM | PIT | B | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | PIT @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | IND @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | PIT @ CLETHU 8:15 PM | PIT | B | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | CIN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 66% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | PIT @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 68% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | ATL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | BAL @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | C | 61% | BAL 24–26 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | PIT @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | PIT | A | 75% | PIT 6–13 CLE | LOSS |
| 2025·W16 | PIT @ DETSUN 4:25 PM | DET | B | 64% | PIT 29–24 DET | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W15 | MIA @ PITMON 8:15 PM | PIT | C | 59% | MIA 15–28 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W14 | PIT @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 68% | PIT 27–22 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W13 | BUF @ PITSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | C | 60% | BUF 26–7 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W12 | PIT @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | CHI | B | 63% | PIT 28–31 CHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W11 | CIN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 63% | CIN 12–34 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W10 | PIT @ LACSUN 8:20 PM | LAC | B | 66% | PIT 10–25 LAC | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | IND @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 66% | IND 20–27 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | GB @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | GB | B | 60% | GB 35–25 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W7 | PIT @ CINTHU 8:15 PM | PIT | C | 61% | PIT 31–33 CIN | LOSS |
| 2025·W6 | CLE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | A+ | 76% | CLE 9–23 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W4 | MIN @ PITSUN 9:30 AM | PIT | C | 59% | MIN 21–24 PIT | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | PIT @ NESUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 59% | PIT 21–14 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W2 | SEA @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | C | 58% | SEA 31–17 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | PIT @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 62% | PIT 34–32 NYJ | WIN |
| 2024·W18 | CIN @ PITSAT 8:00 PM | PIT | C | 50% | CIN 19–17 PIT | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | KC @ PITWED 1:00 PM | KC | B | 67% | KC 29–10 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W16 | PIT @ BALSAT 4:30 PM | BAL | B | 67% | PIT 17–34 BAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W15 | PIT @ PHISUN 4:25 PM | PHI | B | 66% | PIT 13–27 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W14 | CLE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | A+ | 75% | CLE 14–27 PIT | WIN |
| 2024·W13 | PIT @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 58% | PIT 44–38 CIN | WIN |
| 2024·W12 | PIT @ CLETHU 8:15 PM | PIT | A | 71% | PIT 19–24 CLE | LOSS |
| 2024·W11 | BAL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 62% | BAL 16–18 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W10 | PIT @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 59% | PIT 28–27 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | NYG @ PITMON 8:15 PM | PIT | A+ | 74% | NYG 18–26 PIT | WIN |
| 2024·W7 | NYJ @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | A | 71% | NYJ 15–37 PIT | WIN |
| 2024·W6 | PIT @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | PIT | C | 60% | PIT 32–13 LV | WIN |
| 2024·W5 | DAL @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | C | 59% | DAL 20–17 PIT | LOSS |
| 2024·W4 | PIT @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 65% | PIT 24–27 IND | LOSS |
| 2024·W3 | LAC @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 66% | LAC 10–20 PIT | WIN |
| 2024·W2 | PIT @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | PIT | B | 66% | PIT 13–6 DEN | WIN |
| 2024·W1 | PIT @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 65% | PIT 18–10 ATL | WIN |
| 2023·W18 | PIT @ BALSAT 4:30 PM | BAL | C | 68% | PIT 17–10 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | PIT @ SEASUN 4:05 PM | PIT | C | 58% | PIT 30–23 SEA | WIN |
| 2023·W16 | CIN @ PITSAT 4:30 PM | CIN | C | 61% | CIN 11–34 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W15 | PIT @ INDSAT 4:30 PM | PIT | C | 56% | PIT 13–30 IND | LOSS |
| 2023·W14 | NE @ PITTHU 8:15 PM | PIT | A | 75% | NE 21–18 PIT | LOSS |
| 2023·W13 | ARI @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | S | 80% | ARI 24–10 PIT | LOSS |
| 2023·W12 | PIT @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 50% | PIT 16–10 CIN | WIN |
| 2023·W11 | PIT @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 58% | PIT 10–13 CLE | LOSS |
| 2023·W10 | GB @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 66% | GB 19–23 PIT | WIN |
| 2023·W9 | TEN @ PITTHU 8:15 PM | PIT | A | 72% | TEN 16–20 PIT | WIN |
| 2023·W8 | JAX @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 50% | JAX 20–10 PIT | LOSS |
| 2023·W7 | PIT @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | PIT | C | 63% | PIT 24–17 LAR | WIN |
| 2023·W5 | BAL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 57% | BAL 10–17 PIT | WIN |
| 2023·W4 | PIT @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | A | 72% | PIT 6–30 HOU | LOSS |
| 2023·W3 | PIT @ LVSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | B | 62% | PIT 23–18 LV | WIN |
| 2023·W2 | CLE @ PITMON 8:15 PM | PIT | B | 64% | CLE 22–26 PIT | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | SF @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | SF | B | 61% | SF 30–7 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | CLE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 67% | CLE 14–28 PIT | WIN |
| 2022·W17 | PIT @ BALSUN 8:20 PM | BAL | C | 59% | PIT 16–13 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W16 | LV @ PITSAT 8:15 PM | PIT | C | 58% | LV 10–13 PIT | WIN |
| 2022·W15 | PIT @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | C | 50% | PIT 24–16 CAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | BAL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | C | 58% | BAL 16–14 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W13 | PIT @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 56% | PIT 19–16 ATL | WIN |
| 2022·W12 | PIT @ INDMON 8:15 PM | IND | C | 57% | PIT 24–17 IND | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W11 | CIN @ PITSUN 4:25 PM | CIN | C | 60% | CIN 37–30 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W10 | NO @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 59% | NO 10–20 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W8 | PIT @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | PHI | A+ | 73% | PIT 13–35 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W7 | PIT @ MIASUN 8:20 PM | MIA | C | 58% | PIT 10–16 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W6 | TB @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 71% | TB 18–20 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W5 | PIT @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | PIT 3–38 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W4 | NYJ @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 69% | NYJ 24–20 PIT | LOSS |
| 2022·W3 | PIT @ CLETHU 8:15 PM | PIT | C | 58% | PIT 17–29 CLE | LOSS |
| 2022·W2 | NE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 56% | NE 17–14 PIT | LOSS |
| 2022·W1 | PIT @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 59% | PIT 23–20 CIN | WIN |
| 2021·W18 | PIT @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 53% | PIT 16–13 BAL | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | CLE @ PITMON 8:15 PM | CLE | C | 49% | CLE 14–26 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W16 | PIT @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 67% | PIT 10–36 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W15 | TEN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 57% | TEN 13–19 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W14 | PIT @ MINTHU 8:20 PM | MIN | B | 52% | PIT 28–36 MIN | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W13 | BAL @ PITSUN 4:25 PM | BAL | B | 61% | BAL 19–20 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W12 | PIT @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | C | 50% | PIT 10–41 CIN | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W11 | PIT @ LACSUN 8:20 PM | PIT | B | 52% | PIT 37–41 LAC | LOSS |
| 2021·W10 | DET @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | S | 74% | DET 16–16 PIT | — |
| 2021·W9 | CHI @ PITMON 8:15 PM | PIT | B | 63% | CHI 27–29 PIT | WIN |
| 2021·W8 | PIT @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | CLE | C | 53% | PIT 15–10 CLE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W6 | SEA @ PITSUN 8:20 PM | SEA | C | 51% | SEA 20–23 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W5 | DEN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | DEN | C | 52% | DEN 19–27 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W4 | PIT @ GBSUN 4:25 PM | GB | B | 64% | PIT 17–27 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W3 | CIN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 61% | CIN 24–10 PIT | LOSS |
| 2021·W2 | LV @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 60% | LV 26–17 PIT | LOSS |
| 2021·W1 | PIT @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 63% | PIT 23–16 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W17 | PIT @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | CLE | C | 51% | PIT 22–24 CLE | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W16 | IND @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 52% | IND 24–28 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W15 | PIT @ CINMON 8:15 PM | PIT | S | 72% | PIT 17–27 CIN | LOSS |
| 2020·W14 | PIT @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | C | 50% | PIT 15–26 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W13 | WAS @ PITMON 5:00 PM | PIT | A+ | 72% | WAS 23–17 PIT | LOSS |
| 2020·W12 | BAL @ PITWED 3:40 PM | PIT | B | 60% | BAL 14–19 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W11 | PIT @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | S | 73% | PIT 27–3 JAX | WIN |
| 2020·W10 | CIN @ PITSUN 4:25 PM | PIT | S | 74% | CIN 10–36 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W9 | PIT @ DALSUN 4:25 PM | PIT | B | 64% | PIT 24–19 DAL | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | PIT @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 61% | PIT 28–24 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W7 | PIT @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 57% | PIT 27–24 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W6 | CLE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 56% | CLE 7–38 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W5 | PHI @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 55% | PHI 29–38 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | HOU @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 58% | HOU 21–28 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W2 | DEN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 52% | DEN 21–26 PIT | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | PIT @ NYGMON 7:15 PM | PIT | B | 55% | PIT 26–16 NYG | WIN |