Browns vs Steelers – Week 17 2021
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
14@26
PIT BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 14, Pittsburgh Steelers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: CLE 49%Our line: CLE +0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.012Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
43.9% (19)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.2. The market has CLE at -1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CLE 14, PIT 26. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 49% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 17, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.012 against PIT -0.090.
