2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ WAS – Week 17 2021
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
20@16
PHI +4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 62%Projected margin: -5.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-5.4
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -238 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES