Eagles vs Commanders – Week 17 2021
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
20@16
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 20, Washington Commanders 16.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: PHI 62%Our line: PHI -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
46.9% (8)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 4.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs WAS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.0. The market has PHI at -6.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 20, WAS 16. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 17, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 0.6 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against WAS -0.124.
