CAR @ NO – Week 17 2021
CAR
NO
CAR
AWAY
10@18
NO BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 62%Our line: NO -4.1
NO
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-163
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.093Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.138Offense EPA / play-0.074
-0.044Defense EPA / play-0.109
40.9%Offense success %40.6%
40.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 8. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +238 | -279 |
| Our fair price | +163 | -163 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Sam Darnold2527 yd · 9 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard612 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey442 yd · 1 TD
Cam Newton230 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore93 rec · 1157 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen53 rec · 519 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.1. The market has NO at -7.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 37.0.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: CAR -0.093 against NO +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
