2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ BUF – Week 17 2021
ATL
BUF
ATL
AWAY
15@29
BUF +14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: BUF 64%Projected margin: 6.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
6.1
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 14. Off by 7.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+14.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
COLD GAME
26°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -871 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
26°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@ATLW6 2025 | BUF 14, ATL 24 | BUF | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES