Falcons vs Bills – Week 17 2021
ATL
BUF
ATL
AWAY
15@29
BUF BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 15, Buffalo Bills 29.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.9
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
40.4% (29)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 14. Off by 9.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-14.0). Push, no winner ATS.
COLD GAME
26°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
26°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@ATLW6 2025 | BUF 14, ATL 24 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.9. The market has BUF at -14.0.
Buffalo Bills won, ATL 15, BUF 29. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -14.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 17, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, BUF 14, ATL 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: ATL -0.180 against BUF +0.242.
