ATL @ BUF – Week 17 2021
ATL
BUF
ATL
AWAY
15@29
BUF BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.098Offense EPA / play+0.101
+0.082Defense EPA / play-0.141
40.4%Offense success %47.7%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 14. Off by 9.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-14.0). Push, no winner ATS.
COLD GAME
26°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +625 | -871 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
26°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
Russell Gage66 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@ATLW6 2025 | BUF 14, ATL 24 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.9. The market has BUF at -14.0.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, BUF 14, ATL 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: ATL -0.180 against BUF +0.242.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
