Lions vs Seahawks – Week 17 2021
DET
SEA
DET
AWAY
29@51
SEA BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 29, Seattle Seahawks 51.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 2 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 57%Our line: SEA -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
42.0% (22)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 22. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DETW4 2024 | SEA 29, DET 42 | DET | W |
| SEA@DETW2 2023 | SEA 37, DET 31 | DET | L |
| SEA@DETW4 2022 | SEA 48, DET 45 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.4. The market has SEA at -8.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, DET 29, SEA 51. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -8.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, SEA 29, DET 42 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: DET -0.161 against SEA +0.003.
