2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ BAL – Week 17 2021
LA
BAL
LA
AWAY
20@19
LA +1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 62%Projected margin: -5.5
LA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 1. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -313 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
WR
168.2SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@BALW6 2025 | LA 17, BAL 3 | LA | W |
| LA@BALW14 2023 | LA 31, BAL 37 | BAL | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES