2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ IND – Week 17 2021
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
23@20
LV +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 64%Projected margin: 4.6
IND
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but LV won. Projected margin was 4.6 -- the model overestimated by 7.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -397 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW5 2025 | LV 6, IND 40 | IND | W |
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES