Jaguars vs Patriots – Week 17 2021
JAX
NE
JAX
AWAY
10@50
NE BY 40
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 10, New England Patriots 50.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 74%Our line: NE -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -17.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -8.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.135
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
44.0% (18)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 40. Off by 31.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@JAXW3 2026 | NE 6, JAX 35 | JAX | W |
| NE@JAXW7 2024 | NE 16, JAX 32 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project NE by 8.7. The market has NE at -17.5.
New England Patriots won, JAX 10, NE 50. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -17.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 17.5 points.
In Week 17, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, NE 6, JAX 35 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: JAX -0.206 against NE +0.135.
