Giants vs Bears – Week 17 2021
NYG
CHI
NYG
AWAY
3@29
CHI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 3, Chicago Bears 29.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 52%Our line: CHI -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -0.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.127
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
39.3% (30)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 26. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CHIW10 2025 | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NYGW4 2022 | CHI 12, NYG 20 | CHI | L |
| NYG@CHIW2 2020 | NYG 13, CHI 17 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.8. The market has CHI at -7.0.
Chicago Bears won, NYG 3, CHI 29. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -7.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 17, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 8.7 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NYG 20, CHI 24 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Chicago Bears: NYG -0.192 against CHI -0.127.
