NYG @ CHI – Week 17 2021
NYG
CHI
NYG
AWAY
3@29
CHI BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 52%Our line: CHI -0.8
CHI
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.8
OUR LINE
-110
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.127
-0.161Offense EPA / play-0.100
+0.031Defense EPA / play+0.026
39.3%Offense success %41.2%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 26. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +245 | -287 |
| Our fair price | +110 | -110 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5 SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6 SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
144.1 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones2428 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley593 yd · 2 TD
Devontae Booker593 yd · 2 TD
Daniel Jones298 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Kenny Golladay37 rec · 521 yd · 0 TD
Kadarius Toney39 rec · 420 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CHIW10 2025 | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NYGW4 2022 | CHI 12, NYG 20 | CHI | L |
| NYG@CHIW2 2020 | NYG 13, CHI 17 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.8. The market has CHI at -7.0.
The model projects 45.2 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NYG 20, CHI 24 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Chicago Bears: NYG -0.192 against CHI -0.127.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
