2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LAC – Week 17 2021
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
13@34
LAC +21
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LAC 56%Projected margin: 2.8
LAC
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 21. Off by 18.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES