Broncos vs Chargers – Week 17 2021
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
13@34
LAC BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 13, Los Angeles Chargers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 56%Our line: LAC -2.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -2.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.004Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
44.7% (14)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 21. Off by 19.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.0. The market has LAC at -8.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, DEN 13, LAC 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -8.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 17, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: DEN +0.004 against LAC +0.061.
