2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NYJ – Week 17 2021
TB
NYJ
TB
AWAY
28@24
TB +4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER S
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 71%Projected margin: -10.1
TB
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
-10.1
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 10.1. Actual: 4. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -868 | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@TBW3 2025 | NYJ 27, TB 29 | TB | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES