TB @ NYJ – Week 17 2021
TB
NYJ
TB
AWAY
28@24
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: TB 71%Our line: TB -7.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-14.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-241
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.217Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.137Offense EPA / play-0.092
-0.080Defense EPA / play+0.128
49.4%Offense success %41.6%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 4. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -868 | +623 |
| Our fair price | -241 | +241 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -14.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.12
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-16%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
Mike Evans74 rec · 1035 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 71% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TB by 7.4. The market has TB at -14.5.
The model projects 48.6 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NYJ 27, TB 29 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against NYJ -0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
