Dolphins vs Titans – Week 17 2021
MIA
TEN
MIA
AWAY
3@34
TEN BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 3, Tennessee Titans 34.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: MIA 52%Our line: MIA -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
41.3% (25)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 0.8, the model overestimated by 31.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW4 2024 | TEN 31, MIA 12 | MIA | L |
| TEN@MIAW14 2023 | TEN 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs TEN
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.8. The market has MIA at +3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, MIA 3, TEN 34. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 5.8 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 31, MIA 12 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: MIA -0.031 against TEN +0.055.
