2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ TEN – Week 17 2021
MIA
TEN
MIA
AWAY
3@34
TEN +31
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 52%Projected margin: -0.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but TEN won. Projected margin was 0.5 -- the model overestimated by 31.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +151 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@MIAW4 2024 | TEN 31, MIA 12 | MIA | L |
| TEN@MIAW14 2023 | TEN 28, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES