AFC South · #31 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Tennessee Titans
FOR 24-13 (65%)VS 46-18 (72%)ATS 17-19 (47%)284–478 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
vs
New York JetsSUN 1:00 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →vsNew York JetsKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISRanked #31 in the NFL by net EPA per play, bottom 5 in the league.
Struggling on both sides, below-average offense and a defense that leaks expected points.
Net EPA dropped -0.114 from 2024, a notable regression.
On a 3-year decline, net EPA has dropped every season since 2023.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL-0.260
NET EPA/PLAY
-0.160
OFF EPA/PLAY
+0.100
DEF EPA/PLAY
-0.221
PASS EPA/PLAY
-0.057
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.048
+0.170
-0.039
+0.085
+0.140
-0.098
-0.167
-0.150
+0.006
+0.128
-0.047
-0.025
-0.029
-0.153
+0.011
-0.187
-0.156
-0.013
-0.052
-0.029
+0.091
+0.053
+0.055
-0.064
-0.055
-0.146
-0.260
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.260 | -0.160 | +0.100 | 284 | 478 |
| 2024 | -0.146 | -0.116 | +0.030 | 311 | 460 |
| 2023 | -0.055 | -0.047 | +0.007 | 305 | 367 |
| 2022 | -0.064 | -0.059 | +0.004 | 298 | 359 |
| 2021 | +0.055 | +0.022 | -0.033 | 419 | 354 |
| 2020 | +0.053 | +0.171 | +0.117 | 491 | 439 |
| 2019 | +0.091 | +0.063 | -0.028 | 402 | 331 |
| 2018 | -0.029 | -0.029 | -0.000 | 310 | 303 |
| 2017 | -0.052 | -0.093 | -0.041 | 334 | 356 |
| 2016 | -0.013 | +0.028 | +0.041 | 381 | 378 |
| 2015 | -0.156 | -0.118 | +0.038 | 299 | 423 |
| 2014 | -0.187 | -0.119 | +0.068 | 254 | 438 |
| 2013 | +0.011 | +0.024 | +0.013 | 362 | 381 |
| 2012 | -0.153 | -0.095 | +0.059 | 330 | 471 |
| 2011 | -0.029 | -0.041 | -0.012 | 325 | 317 |
| 2010 | -0.025 | -0.034 | -0.010 | 356 | 339 |
| 2009 | -0.047 | +0.014 | +0.061 | 354 | 402 |
| 2008 | +0.128 | -0.012 | -0.140 | 375 | 234 |
| 2007 | +0.006 | -0.074 | -0.080 | 301 | 297 |
| 2006 | -0.150 | -0.098 | +0.053 | 324 | 400 |
| 2005 | -0.167 | -0.112 | +0.055 | 299 | 421 |
| 2004 | -0.098 | -0.031 | +0.067 | 344 | 439 |
| 2003 | +0.140 | +0.048 | -0.091 | 435 | 324 |
| 2002 | +0.085 | +0.040 | -0.045 | 367 | 324 |
| 2001 | -0.039 | -0.012 | +0.027 | 336 | 388 |
| 2000 | +0.170 | -0.040 | -0.210 | 346 | 191 |
| 1999 | +0.048 | +0.009 | -0.039 | 392 | 324 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
62.6%
EARLY DOWN PASS
57.0%
SHOTGUN RATE
72.9%
NO HUDDLE
10.2%
4TH DOWN GO
24.1%
4TH DOWN CONV
45.7%
3RD DOWN CONV
31.9%
RED ZONE TD
68.4%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
78.6%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
-0.019
PTS/DRIVE
1.0
PLAYS/DRIVE
5.6
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 62.6% | 24.1% | 31.9% | 68.4% | 1.0 | -0.021 |
| 2024 | 56.5% | 18.7% | 37.7% | 65.0% | 1.2 | -0.081 |
| 2023 | 56.4% | 15.9% | 34.0% | 80.0% | 1.2 | -0.068 |
| 2022 | 51.6% | 13.3% | 36.9% | 84.2% | 1.2 | -0.291 |
| 2021 | 52.0% | 21.2% | 43.8% | 87.0% | 1.8 | -0.046 |
| 2020 | 50.1% | 17.8% | 46.7% | 95.7% | 2.6 | -0.019 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Ward | QB | 17 | 3,169 | 159 | — | 17 | 186.7 |
| T.Pollard | RB | 17 | — | 1,082 | 206 | 5 | 185.8 |
| T.Spears | RB | 13 | — | 283 | 264 | 2 | 111.7 |
| C.Dike | WR | 17 | — | 18 | 423 | 4 | 128.1 |
| E.Ayomanor | WR | 16 | — | — | 515 | 4 | 116.5 |
| V.Jefferson | WR | 14 | — | — | 350 | 1 | 70.0 |
| C.Okonkwo | TE | 17 | — | — | 560 | 2 | 124.0 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
22-29
43% WIN RATE
AWAY
20-30
40% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS24-13
PICKS FOR
65%
FOR ACCURACY
46-18
PICKS AGAINST
72%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK TEN · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
11-12
47.8%
AWAY
6-7
46.2%
FAVORITE
12-16
42.9%
UNDERDOG
5-3
62.5%
S TIER
0-2
A+ TIER
6-3
B TIER
6-11
C TIER
5-3
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR TEN · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | TEN @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | FCST | 84% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | PIT @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | TEN @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | LV | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | IND | FCST | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | TEN @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | FCST | 76% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | WAS @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | TEN @ JAXSUN 4:05 PM | JAX | FCST | 83% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | TEN @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | FCST | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | FCST | 79% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | TEN @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | FCST | 75% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | CLE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | CLE | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | A+ | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | TEN @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | A+ | 75% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | TEN @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | NYG | B | 66% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | PHI @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | A | 74% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | NYJ @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | TEN @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | S | 84% | TEN 7–41 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W17 | NO @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 63% | NO 34–26 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W16 | KC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 9–26 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W15 | TEN @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | SF | S | 82% | TEN 24–37 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W14 | TEN @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | CLE | B | 68% | TEN 31–29 CLE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W13 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | A+ | 76% | JAX 25–3 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W12 | SEA @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | S | 81% | SEA 30–24 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W11 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | A | 71% | HOU 16–13 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | LAC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | LAC | A+ | 77% | LAC 27–20 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | TEN @ INDSUN 4:25 PM | IND | S | 86% | TEN 14–38 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W7 | NE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 70% | NE 31–13 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W6 | TEN @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | LV | B | 67% | TEN 10–20 LV | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W5 | TEN @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ARI | A+ | 79% | TEN 22–21 ARI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | TEN @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | A | 72% | TEN 0–26 HOU | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W3 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | IND | A+ | 79% | IND 41–20 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W2 | LAR @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A+ | 79% | LAR 33–19 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | TEN @ DENSUN 4:05 PM | DEN | S | 78% | TEN 12–20 DEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W18 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | B | 66% | HOU 23–14 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W17 | TEN @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | B | 67% | TEN 13–20 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W16 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | A | 72% | TEN 30–38 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W15 | CIN @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | B | 65% | CIN 37–27 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W14 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | B | 62% | JAX 10–6 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W13 | TEN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | A | 70% | TEN 19–42 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W12 | TEN @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | A+ | 73% | TEN 32–27 HOU | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W11 | MIN @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 68% | MIN 23–13 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W10 | TEN @ LACSUN 4:05 PM | LAC | B | 66% | TEN 17–27 LAC | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W9 | NE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 60% | NE 17–20 TEN | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | TEN @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | S | 79% | TEN 14–52 DET | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W7 | TEN @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 79% | TEN 10–34 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W6 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 62% | IND 20–17 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W4 | TEN @ MIAMON 7:30 PM | MIA | A | 70% | TEN 31–12 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W3 | GB @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | GB | A | 72% | GB 30–14 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | NYJ @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | NYJ | C | 59% | NYJ 24–17 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W1 | TEN @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | CHI | B | 65% | TEN 17–24 CHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | B | 70% | JAX 20–28 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | TEN @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | B | 69% | TEN 3–26 HOU | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W16 | SEA @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | B | 63% | SEA 20–17 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W15 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 57% | HOU 19–16 TEN | LOSS |
| 2023·W14 | TEN @ MIAMON 8:15 PM | MIA | S | 81% | TEN 28–27 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W13 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 61% | IND 31–28 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W12 | CAR @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 64% | CAR 10–17 TEN | WIN |
| 2023·W11 | TEN @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | A+ | 76% | TEN 14–34 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W10 | TEN @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 68% | TEN 6–20 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W9 | TEN @ PITTHU 8:15 PM | PIT | A | 72% | TEN 16–20 PIT | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | ATL @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 68% | ATL 23–28 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W6 | BAL @ TENSUN 9:30 AM | BAL | B | 67% | BAL 24–16 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W5 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 60% | TEN 16–23 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W4 | CIN @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | A | 75% | CIN 3–27 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W3 | TEN @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | CLE | B | 63% | TEN 3–27 CLE | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W2 | LAC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | LAC | B | 71% | LAC 24–27 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W1 | TEN @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 69% | TEN 15–16 NO | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | TEN @ JAXSAT 8:15 PM | JAX | A | 73% | TEN 16–20 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W17 | DAL @ TENTHU 8:15 PM | DAL | A+ | 78% | DAL 27–13 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W16 | HOU @ TENSAT 2:00 PM | TEN | B | 66% | HOU 19–14 TEN | LOSS |
| 2022·W15 | TEN @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | LAC | B | 63% | TEN 14–17 LAC | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 63% | JAX 36–22 TEN | LOSS |
| 2022·W13 | TEN @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | PHI | B | 65% | TEN 10–35 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W12 | CIN @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 61% | CIN 20–16 TEN | LOSS |
| 2022·W11 | TEN @ GBTHU 8:15 PM | TEN | B | 60% | TEN 27–17 GB | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | DEN @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 67% | DEN 10–17 TEN | WIN |
| 2022·W9 | TEN @ KCSUN 8:20 PM | KC | C | 60% | TEN 17–20 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W8 | TEN @ HOUSUN 4:05 PM | TEN | A+ | 73% | TEN 17–10 HOU | WIN |
| 2022·W7 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 62% | IND 10–19 TEN | WIN |
| 2022·W5 | TEN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 69% | TEN 21–17 WAS | WIN |
| 2022·W4 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 58% | TEN 24–17 IND | WIN |
| 2022·W3 | LV @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 61% | LV 22–24 TEN | WIN |
| 2022·W2 | TEN @ BUFMON 7:15 PM | BUF | B | 65% | TEN 7–41 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W1 | NYG @ TENSUN 4:25 PM | TEN | S | 75% | NYG 21–20 TEN | LOSS |
| 2021·W18 | TEN @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 68% | TEN 28–25 HOU | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | MIA @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 52% | MIA 3–34 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W16 | SF @ TENTHU 8:20 PM | SF | B | 52% | SF 17–20 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W15 | TEN @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 57% | TEN 13–19 PIT | LOSS |
| 2021·W14 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 69% | JAX 0–20 TEN | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | TEN @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 55% | TEN 13–36 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W11 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | S | 76% | HOU 22–13 TEN | LOSS |
| 2021·W10 | NO @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 52% | NO 21–23 TEN | WIN |
| 2021·W9 | TEN @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | C | 56% | TEN 28–16 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W8 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | C | 49% | TEN 34–31 IND | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W7 | KC @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 51% | KC 3–27 TEN | WIN |
| 2021·W6 | BUF @ TENMON 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 64% | BUF 31–34 TEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W5 | TEN @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 69% | TEN 37–19 JAX | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | TEN @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 69% | TEN 24–27 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2021·W3 | IND @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | C | 51% | IND 16–25 TEN | WIN |
| 2021·W2 | TEN @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 58% | TEN 33–30 SEA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W1 | ARI @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 62% | ARI 38–13 TEN | LOSS |
| 2020·W17 | TEN @ HOUSUN 4:25 PM | TEN | B | 64% | TEN 41–38 HOU | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | TEN @ GBSUN 8:20 PM | GB | B | 54% | TEN 14–40 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W15 | DET @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 71% | DET 25–46 TEN | WIN |
| 2020·W14 | TEN @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 69% | TEN 31–10 JAX | WIN |
| 2020·W13 | CLE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 57% | CLE 41–35 TEN | LOSS |
| 2020·W12 | TEN @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 54% | TEN 45–26 IND | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W11 | TEN @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 61% | TEN 30–24 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W10 | IND @ TENTHU 8:20 PM | TEN | B | 57% | IND 34–17 TEN | LOSS |
| 2020·W9 | CHI @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 60% | CHI 17–24 TEN | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | TEN @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 67% | TEN 20–31 CIN | LOSS |
| 2020·W7 | PIT @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 57% | PIT 27–24 TEN | LOSS |
| 2020·W6 | HOU @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | A+ | 69% | HOU 36–42 TEN | WIN |
| 2020·W5 | BUF @ TENTUE 7:00 PM | TEN | C | 53% | BUF 16–42 TEN | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | TEN @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 56% | TEN 31–30 MIN | WIN |
| 2020·W2 | JAX @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 59% | JAX 30–33 TEN | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | TEN @ DENMON 10:10 PM | TEN | C | 51% | TEN 16–14 DEN | WIN |