2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ HOU – Week 18 2021
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
28@25
TEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 68%Projected margin: -8.9
TEN
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
-8.9
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 3. Off by 5.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -575 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES