Titans vs Texans – Week 18 2021
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
28@25
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 28, Houston Texans 25.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: TEN 68%Our line: TEN -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -6.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.212
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
44.6% (15)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 3. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.2. The market has TEN at -10.5.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 28, HOU 25. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -10.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 18, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 4.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.055 against HOU -0.212.
