2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ ARI – Week 18 2021
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
38@30
SEA +8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 55%Projected margin: 1.9
ARI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -235 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DK Metcalf
WR
244.3SEASON PPR
Russell Wilson
QB
242.8SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
241.4SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES