2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ LA – Week 18 2021
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
27@24
SF +3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 57%Projected margin: 3.4
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
198.0SEASON PPR
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES