49ers vs Rams – Week 18 2021
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
27@24
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: LA 57%Our line: LA -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
45.7% (12)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 5.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 2.3. The market has LA at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 27, LA 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against LA +0.102.
