Commanders vs Giants – Week 18 2021
WAS
NYG
WAS
AWAY
22@7
WAS BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 22, New York Giants 7.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders, 3 Giants.
Model confidence: WAS 56%Our line: WAS -2.0
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -2.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.124Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.161 (32)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (23)
43.9% (20)Offense success %39.3% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 2.0. Actual: 15. Off by 13.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NYG
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.0. The market has WAS at -6.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 22, NYG 7. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -6.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 18, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 10.5 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.124 against NYG -0.192.
